Investing in College Basketball
- Book Review,
by Larry R. Seidel
Book Description
Investing in College Basketball provides a comprehensive set of tools and techniques for successfully wagering on college basketball. It shows how the returns – winnings -- from investing in college basketball can be far greater than investing in stocks and bonds. These returns can be achieved by anyone with an interest in basketball, basic mathematical skills, and a computer with spreadsheet programs and Internet access. The power of the methodology is demonstrated by actual investing results for the 2003-2004 season of the Atlantic 10 Conference. The book includes an analysis of investment outcomes for the A-10 Conference, the working papers for assessing each team, and the analysis of each game for which an investment was made. There are extensive examples of how theory is applied in analyzing actual games and showing how good analysis consistently pays off.
From the Inside Flap
Gambling on college hoops is a waste of money. Investing in college basketball can be much more profitable than investing in stocks, bonds, real estate, and other more conventional assets – and doing so can be a lot more fun. There are a set of tools and techniques for identifying good basketball investments that can be mastered by anyone with an interest in basketball, basic mathematical skills, and a computer with a spreadsheet program and Internet access. Wagering on college basketball must be viewed like other investments -- applying sound financial and economic principles. For that reason, it is important to adopt a financial perspective – to think of wagers as "investments," sports books as "exchanges," winnings as "returns on investments," and the vigorish as "commissions." College basketball provides an investing opportunity for the individual investor. While certainly there are professionals in sports wagering, most wagering is done by individuals. To win big it is only necessary to be more insightful than most other individual investors, not to beat the professionals. In contrast, in the stock and bond markets, most of the trades are made or influenced by thousands of professionals. These traders are supported by hundreds of sophisticated researchers who have more information about companies than individual investors can ever have. Today, there are enormous amounts of information available for Division I college basketball teams and the games they play. An individual investor can have access to virtually all of the information that is available to the most sophisticated professionals and more information than is used by competing individual investors. By applying proven analytical techniques – largely simple math – individual investors can gain a substantial advantage. This is the most comprehensive book on college basketball wagering. It addresses how the market and the many sports books work, the different types of wagering opportunities available, how to select a conference to specialize in, the process of identifying advantageous investment opportunities and making investments, the key factors in assessing teams and the match-up in a specific game, money management, and the needed information and technology infrastructure. Investing in College Basketball shows precisely how all of the tools and techniques are successfully applied. It includes all of the working papers for team assessments and each investment for the teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference for the 2003-2004 season. The results for the season were a 71% win rate and a return on an original bankroll exceeding 300%.
About the Author
Mr. Seidel has specialized in investing in men’s college basketball for more than a decade. He has developed the tools and techniques described in Investing in College Basketball based on actual experience and many of the fundamental financial and economic principles that apply to other types of investments. Mr. Seidel has built and run management and information technology consulting businesses. Most recently he ran a $350M consulting business that addressed several industries including banking and financial services. He received degrees in economics and finance from the University of Chicago.
Excerpted from Investing in College Basketball by Larry R. Seidel. Copyright © 2004. Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Back Cover Gambling on college hoops is a waste of money. Investing in college basketball can be much more profitable than investing in stocks, bonds, real estate and other more conventional assets – and doing so is a lot more fun. Anyone can be a successful investor in college basketball. There are a set of tools and techniques for identifying good basketball investments that can be mastered by anyone with an interest in basketball, basic mathematical skills, and a computer with a spreadsheet program and Internet access. The secret is to master each of the four aspects of investing – finding and managing valuable information, analyzing teams and forecasting game outcomes, managing money, and having psychological discipline. Examples of important principles of investing that make the difference between winning and losing …. · The best investments are those in which you are competing against other investors, not sports books – like point spreads. · Your greatest advantage comes from information and the ability to use it – today you can easily have more information about teams and games than almost all other investors. · Point spreads reflect the expectations of other investors in the market, not the true expected outcome of games – advantage is gained when you identify games in which the likely outcome is substantially different than the expectations of other investors. · Winning investments are based on changes in team performance that you identify and act on before other investors – not season averages and power ratings! · Sports wagering is a commodity business. Most sports books have the same propositions and terms. There is a lot of value in "shopping" to find the best terms for an investment you want to make. Investing in College Basketball is for investors not gamblers. If you like to play hunches, think certain teams are "due to win", are biased by the teams and players that you see in person, and can’t watch a game without investing in it, then you are a gambler who will always be providing winnings for investors.
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