Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas FROM THE PUBLISHER
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden--and possibly nucleararmed--totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
SYNOPSIS
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post-war era confronts a famine-ridden -- and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
FROM THE CRITICS
Booknews
Examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the US and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the Korean peninsula is explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption, and "muddling through," in which North Korea makes regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. Noland has been a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING
Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor, and essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea. — Joe Stiglitz, Former Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank.
Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute:
Avoiding the Apocalypse . . . establishes Noland as one of the most important contemporary authorities on the Korean conundrum. It is original, powerful, and persuasive . . . — Nicholas Eberstadt
Don Gregg, The Korea Society, and former U.S. Ambassador to Republic of South Korea:
(The paper is) the best I've seen on the subject. — Don Gregg
Il SaKong, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Economics and former Minister of Finance of the Republic of South Korea
. . . (This) encyclopedic coverage of the two Korean economies . . . will be widely read and cited. — Il SaKong
Robert B. Zoellick, Former U.S. Undersecretary of State, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff:
Marcus Noland has managed to integrate the political and economic stories of both North and South Korea in one most useful volume. Given the Summit plans, which will be part of an ongoing and complex process, Noland's account offers especially timely insights and guidance.
— Robert B. Zoellick
Scott Snyder, Asia Foundation, (Seoul, Korea):
. . . Noland (provides us) with an eminently sensible and comprehensive guidebook in anticipation of Korean peninsula scenarios that are by definition extraordinarily uncertain. — Scott Snyder
Joe Stiglitz, Former Senior Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank:
Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor, and essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea. — Joe Stiglitz
Home
