Dire Strait?: Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy

Book Description
Among the hottest flashpoints in the world today, the Taiwan Strait cannot be ignored by U.S. policymakers and diplomats. China regularly rattles its saber to intimidate Taiwan and influence U.S. policy but has thus far stopped short of overt military action. This report analyzes the steps Taiwan should take to bolster the odds in its favor should a conflict with the mainland occur and describes how the United States can most effectivelycontribute in both peace and crisis. The authors conclude that the United States and Taiwan can take a number of fairly simple and relatively inexpensive measures--including hardening air bases and other facilities and upgrading the air defense command and control system--that would significantly enhance Taiwan's ability to defend itself against a large-scale Chinese attack.


From the Publisher
Even a half century after the birth of the People'sRepublic of China (PRC), the Taiwan Strait remains thelocus of one of the most dangerous militaryconfrontations in the world. In recent years, a series ofChinese military exercises coupled with the ongoingmodernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)have seemed to raise the stakes in this long-standingstaredown and likewise increased its visibility,especially in the United States.Until 1979, the United States was Taiwan's primarysecurity partner. Today, it remains linked to the islandby both force of law and a natural affinity toward arapidly democratizing polity embedded in a vibrantmarket economy. But Washington at the same time ispursuing improved relations with Beijing as well asencouraging the PRC's deeper integration with theinternational system at large. Because the status ofTaiwan may be China's single most neuralgic point, theUnited States is compelled to perform a delicatebalancing act-attempting to fulfill its obligations andinclinations toward ensuring the Republic of China's(ROC) survival without making an enemy of themainland.This report looks at the near-term military balancebetween China and Taiwan. Mixing quantitative andqualitative analysis, it explores a range of key factorsthat affect the ROC's self-defense capabilities andsuggests ways that the United States can effectivelycontribute to improving the odds in Taipei's favor.This report was written as part of a project on assessingTaiwanese defense needs, sponsored by the SmithRichardson Foundation. Research for the report wasconducted within the International Security and DefensePolicy Center of RAND's National Security ResearchDivision (NSRD), which conducts research for the U.S.Department of Defense, for other U.S. governmentagencies, and for other institutions. Publication of thisreport was supported in part by the Strategy andDoctrine program of Project AIR FORCE.


About the Author
DAVID T. ORLETSKY (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SM, Aeronautics and Astronautics) is an Associate Engineer, at RAND, Washington, DC. His research interests include Chinese defense modernization; command and control sensor, weapon, and communication technology; and USAF operational analysis.


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David T. Orletsky (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SM, Aeronautics and Astronautics) is an Associate Engineer, at RAND, Washington, DC. His research interests include Chinese defense modernization; command and control sensor, weapon, and communication technology; and USAF operational analysis.


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