Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis

FROM THE PUBLISHER

A decade before being proclaimed part of the "axis of evil," North Korea raised alarms in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo as the pace of its clandestine nuclear weapons program mounted. When confronted by evidence of its deception in 1993, Pyongyang abruptly announced its intention to become the first nation ever to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, defying its earlier commitments to submit its nuclear activities to full international inspections.

U.S. intelligence had revealed evidence of a robust plutonium production program. Unconstrained, North Korea￯﾿ﾽs nuclear factory would soon be capable of building about thirty Nagasaki-sized nuclear weapons annually. The resulting arsenal would directly threaten the security of the United States and its allies, while tempting cash-starved North Korea to export its deadly wares to America￯﾿ﾽs most bitter adversaries.

In Going Critical, three former U.S. officials who played key roles in the nuclear crisis trace the intense efforts that led North Korea to freeze￯﾿ﾽand pledge ultimately to dismantle￯﾿ﾽits dangerous plutonium production program under international inspection, while the storm clouds of a second Korean War gathered. Drawing on international government documents, memoranda, cables, and notes, the authors chronicle the complex web of diplomacy--from Seoul, Tokyo, and Beijing to Geneva, Moscow, and Vienna and back again￯﾿ﾽthat led to the negotiation of the 1994 Agreed Framework intended to resolve this nuclear standoff. They also explore the challenge of weaving together the military, economic, and diplomatic instruments employed to persuade North Korea to accept significant constraints on its nuclear activities, while deterring rather than provoking a violent North Korean response.

Some ten years after these intense negotiations, the Agreed Framework lies abandoned. North Korea claims to possess some nuclear weapons, while threatening to produce even more. The story of the 1994 confrontation provides important lessons for the United States as it grapples once again with a nuclear crisis on a peninsula that half a century ago claimed more than 50,000 American lives and today bristles with arms along the last frontier of the cold war: the De-Militarized Zone separating North and South Korea. Author Description:

Joel S. Wit is a senior fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served for 15 years in the Department of State and was coordinator for the 1994 U.S.￯﾿ﾽNorth Korea Agreed Framework..

Daniel B. Poneman is a principal in The Scowcroft Group. He served on the National Security Council staff under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, including nearly four years as special assistant to the President for nonproliferation.

Robert L. Gallucci is dean of Georgetown University￯﾿ﾽs Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. He led the team that negotiated the Agreed Framework and served in a variety of posts in the Department of State for over twenty years, including assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs and ambassador-at-large.

FROM THE CRITICS

Graham Allison - The New York Times, Tuesday July 20,

[S]ure to captivate North Korea specialists and general readers alike.

Scott Snyder - Foreign Affairs

a comprehensive insider's guide to the first North Korean nuclear standoff and an essential tool for comparing today's events to the last round. . ..

Graham Allison - The New York Times

Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis presents an authoritative account of the 1994 deal with North Korea, known as the Agreed Framework, by three participants in the negotiations. Robert L. Gallucci served as chief negotiator of the Agreed Framework, with his co-authors, Joel S. Wit at the State Department and Daniel B. Poneman at the National Security Council fine-tuning the nuts and bolts. Their book provides a gold mine of previously undisclosed decision memorandums, cabinet meeting minutes and scribbled notes from talks with the North Koreans.

Foreign Affairs

...Today, many of the events of ten years ago seem to be repeating themselves. Although this crisis has several striking differences from the last one, the Bush administration would do well to study carefully the drama of 1993-94 and reflect on President Bill Clinton's choices before making its own. Fortunately, Washington has a powerful new tool to aid it in this task: Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis, a comprehensive insider's guide to the first North Korean nuclear standoff and an essential tool for comparing today's events to the last round. As the book makes clear, the stakes and the confusion of the original crisis could not have been greater; during its climax in 1994, Clinton even compared it to the Cuban missile crisis. Going Critical also underscores the changing risks of nuclear proliferation in what Yale's Paul Bracken has called the "second nuclear age" and expands on earlier accounts to offer an authoritative discussion of the events of the first crisis as viewed from Washington. Written with the rare benefit of special access to U.S. government documents and incorporating the personal experiences of its three authors, all of whom played significant roles in the events of 1993-94, Going Critical recounts in detail the options that the Clinton administration considered at every stage of the story — and thus should prove invaluable to the Bush administration today.

WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING

Joseph S. Nye

The nightmare of a nuclear North Korea continues to plague American policymakers. Anyone interested in how to handle this fraught problem should consult this definitive account of the first Korean nuclear crisis. — former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Author of "Soft Power

William J. Perry

Going Critical is the definitive account of the first North Korean nuclear crisis. The authors were at the center of this crisis, and thus speak with a unique authority. Their account is comprehensive, objective, and exceptionally well written. I highly recommend this book to Korean scholars and to nuclear policy scholars. It is an indispensable resource to those who are involved with the ongoing negotiations with North Korea. — former Secretary of Defense

Samuel R. Berger

Going Critical is an indispensable and fascinating study of high stakes negotiations, national security, and diplomacy. Wit, Poneman, and Gallucci have masterfully collaborated, telling a gripping tale of the first North Korean nuclear crisis and prescribing recommendations that bear on today's similar crisis. — former U.S. National Security Adviser

John Shalikashivili

In the '90s, North Korea's nuclear ambitions brought the world close to war. Today, those same ambitions have created the most serious crisis facing the United States. For all who want to understand how we got to where we are today, Going Critical is a must read. It is the very best accounting of the struggle ten years ago to fashion a diplomatic alternative to a potentially catastrophic war. — former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Lawrence Eagleburger