Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability

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Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability. Using short stories crafted in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, he lets Sherlock Holmes guide Watson and his clients through elementary mathematical reasoning. This kind of thinking is growing more and more important as poll numbers, economic indicators, and scientific data find their way into the mainstream, and Bruce's gambit pays off handsomely for the reader. Delving into such arcana as normal distribution, Bayesian logic, and risk taking, the stories never dry up, even when presenting tables or graphs. Holmes's quick wit, Watson's patience, and their various friends' and clients' dubious decisions unite both to entertain and to illuminate tough but important problems. Even the cleverest numerophile will probably still find a nugget or two of hidden knowledge in the book, or at least a few new ways to explain statistical concepts to friends and students. The rest of us can relax, enjoy the tales, and come away a little bit tougher to con. --Rob Lightner


Book Description
A thrilling way to learn about probability, statistics, and math-by watching Sherlock Holmes help victims exploited by evil con men. In Conned Again, Watson!, Colin Bruce re-creates the atmosphere of the original Sherlock Holmes stories to shed light on an enduring truth: Our reliance on common sense-and ignorance of mathematics-often gets us into trouble. In these cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and ruthless con men, Sherlock Holmes uses his deep understanding of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory to solve crimes and protect the innocent. But it's not just the characters in these well-crafted stories that are deceived by statistics or fall prey to gambling fallacies. We all suffer from the results of poor decisions. In this illuminating collection, Bruce entertains while teaching us to avoid similar blunders. From "The Execution of Andrews" to "The Case of the Gambling Nobleman," there has never been a more exciting way to learn when to take a calculated risk-and how to spot a scam.


Book Info
A thrilling way to learn about probability, statistics, and math--by watching Sherlock Holmes help victims exploited by evil con men. Recreates the atmosphere of the original Sherlock Holmes stories to shed light on an enduring truth. Softcover.


About the Author
Colin Bruce is a physicist and science writer living in Oxford, England. He is an expert in mathematical paradoxes and a lover of mysteries.


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This is a highly readable and engaging introduction to many aspects of probability, logic and statistics. Bruce focuses his stories, set in turn-of-the-century London with Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson as the main characters, on aspects of mathematics where common sense frequently leads people astray. For example, the first story presents the cab drivers' fallacy, in which cab drivers set themselves a daily revenue target and work until they achieve it, then knock off for the rest of the day. This results in working longer hours on slow days and fewer hours on busy days. In fact, it is a wiser strategy to work longer hours on busy days, when customers are plentiful, and quit early on slow, unproductive days. The first chapter may puzzle readers not familiar with the Sherlock Holmes stories, as the time frame is not completely obvious, but Bruce makes it clear in the second chapter that these stories all take place around 1900. Several historical figures make interesting guest appearances (e.g., Charles Dodgson, aka Lewis Carroll). There are no equations in the book, as it was meant to be read through and not used as a textbook, but there is a bibliography for those wanting to delve more deeply into specific subjects. All in all, the book is a good read and is useful to mathematics teachers looking for ways to interest and motivate their students in specific topics in probability, logic, and statistics. Category: Science. KLIATT Codes: JSA—Recommended for junior and senior high school students, advanced students, and adults. 2001, Perseus, 290p. illus. index., $15.00. Ages 13 to adult. Reviewer: Thomas S. Downey; Teacher, Rivers Sch., Weston, MA SOURCE: KLIATT, March2002 (Vol. 36, No. 2)


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