Calculated Bets

Amazon.com
You could just as easily call this book How to Bet at Jai-Alai and Win! But that's only half the story. While Calculated Bets might indeed help you make a buck down at the fronton, it's as much concerned with the power of mathematical modeling and computer programming. The story of accomplished mathematician Steven Skiena's longtime obsession with this obscure Basque sport, Calculated Bets uses straightforward mathematics and real-world examples to divine the statistical mysteries behind playing--and, more important, wagering on--jai alai. (Which goes a long way toward explaining why Cambridge University Press is publishing what's basically a book about gambling.)

A self-styled "mild-mannered professor," the conversational Skiena (The Algorithm Design Manual) delivers on his book's many promises, from explaining how mathematical models are "designed, built, and validated" to providing lucid discussions of such topics as market efficiency and the difference between correlation and causation. Even better are his riffs on why real programmers hate Microsoft (hint: it's not jealousy) and the beauty behind interesting curves. In the end, Skiena even puts his money where his mouth is: using a modem, he sets loose an auto-dialing program called Maven that he and his grad students cooked up, sending it off in the wee hours of the morning to cull the Web for stats, play each match a half-million times, and then automatically wager a $250 stake. --Paul Hughes


From Book News, Inc.
Skiena (computer science, State University of New York at Stonybrook) goes beyond the usual territory of applied mathematics to explain how mathematical models and computer simulations can be used to predict the outcome of jai alai matches and successfully bet on them. Along the way, he explains some of the basic ideas of mathematical modeling and computer programming, as well as discussing some of the history of other gambling systems for lotto, roulette, and the stock market.Copyright © 2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR


Review
"Interesting, informative..." American Mathematical Monthly

"I found this book to be a very enjoyable read. The book is written in a leisurely, relaxed style. The author doesn't assume any mathematical, statistical, or computer science knowledge of the reader, and gives plenty of background material on the subject." The American Statistician

FROM THE PUBLISHER

Calculated Bets is the story of a gambling system that works. With humor and enthusiasm, the author tells how he used computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai alai matches and bet on them successfully-increasing his initial stake by over 500% in one year! His system can work for anyone: at the end of the book he tells how to watch jai alai and how to bet on it. He also shows how his jai alai system is similar to a miniature stock trading system.

Do you want to learn about program trading systems, the future of Internet gambling, and the real reason brokerage houses don't offer mutual funds that invest at racetracks and frontons? How mathematical models are used in political polling? The difference between correlation and causation? If you are curious about gambling and mathematics, odds are this book is for you.

SYNOPSIS

Do you want to learn about program trading systems, the future of Internet gambling, and the real reason brokerage houses don't offer mutual funds at the racetracks? The difference between correlation and causation? When it comes to betting on jai alai matches, would you like to increase your initial stake by over 500% in one year? Curious about mathematics? Calculated Bets is for anyone inquisitive about the proven applications between gambling and mathematics.

Skiena begins by introducing newcomers to the power of mathematical modeling. He illustrates the ways in which models can be used to predict the future of a variety of events-including presidential elections, tomorrow's weather, and applying for a mortgage. After explaining how such models are designed, built, and validated, he reveals how they can be used to predict an outcome of a jai alai match. He also demystifies the "craft" of computer, explaining how and why computers are programmed. In doing so, he covers computer science concepts, including the difficulties in killing the Millennium bug, the reasons why computer programmers hate Microsoft, the real glories of the Internet, and more. Skiena also provides a fascinating history of jai alai, which explores gambling's intriguing, proven relationship with mathematics and highlights the similarities between his jai-alai system and stock trading systems. Additionally, he reviews other gambling systems-both successful and unsuccessful-for games, like lotto, roulette, and Wall Street.

Calculated Bets is the story of a gambling system that works. Writing with humor and zeal, acclaimed computer scientist and jai-alai enthusiast Steven Skiena tells how he used computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches-and increased his initial stake by over 500% in one year! His system will work for anyone, regardless of his or her experience-or lack of-in math, computer science, and jai alai. As Skiena touches upon all three subjects, general readers will gain a solid knowledge of the mathematics and computer simulations-in addition to big bucks at jai alai matches!

FROM THE CRITICS

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