Curveball: Baseball, Statistics and the Role of Chance in the Game FROM THE PUBLISHER
Updated with data from the 2002 season, and with new essays on superstar Barry Bonds and the first ever all-Wild-Card World Series, this new paperback edition of the 2001 SABR-Award-winning original hardcover explains why standard statistics are of limited usefulness in evaluating a player, developing an inning-by-inning strategy, or predicting which team will come out on top.
The authors' most significant contribution to the seemingly endless arguments about baseball stats is their inclusion of the statistical principles of probability to analyze the game and the players. Albert and Bennett come to some original and surprising conclusions. It turns out, for example, that the phenomenon of "streakiness" (a hot hand, a hot bat) is measurable and can serve as a very useful predictor of performance. Conversely, they find that a lot of situational statistics (home vs. away games, play on artificial turf vs. grass) are, statistically speaking, little more than "noise." And, in news that will bring consolation to Yankees fans, they declare that it's not always the best team that wins the World Series. Keeping their discussion at a broadly accessible mathematical level -- a high school math education is all that is needed to follow their arguments -- the authors bring a new level of sophistication to statistical analysis of our national pastime.
FROM THE CRITICS
The Wall Street Journal
Smart and energetic . . . hardcore fans will find its mission refreshing. Curve Ball doesn't pay the usual misty-eyed homage to baseball's traditions and conventional wisdom. Rather it tests whether baseball's accepted measurements stand up to scrutiny. . . . This is great stuff. . . . Curve Ball makes clear how pleasurable [stats] can be, and arguably how important, to view the great American game with real precision.