Crisis on the Korean Peninsula : How to Deal With a Nuclear North Korea

From Publishers Weekly
The authors of this study have a worthy goal: to completely transform the nature of the world's relationship with North Korea. Although appreciative of previous attempts to freeze the North's provocative nuclear program, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki see the faults in past efforts, and make a strong case for a new way to bring a stable peace to the peninsula and to introduce the so-called Hermit Kingdom to the international community. Few are more qualified to address the issue than "[t]he two Mikes," as they are dubbed in the foreword by Brookings Institution president Strobe Talbott. The pair have passed their careers in many of the nation's best think tanks and universities, and have spent much ink on the topic of East Asian security. In this instance, they propose a clear, reasoned and, most important, achievable "grand bargain" with the North that would involve a broad range of demands while offering specific incentives to reform. To readers unfamiliar with the nuclear crisis that has unfolded since October of last year, when North Korea allegedly admitted it possessed a uranium-enrichment program, the book can be unforgiving; O'Hanlon and Mochizuki launch right into their nuanced approach to defuse the crisis. After they outline their proposal, however, the book becomes a comprehensive, must-read introductory text to the conflict, and the subject is bizarre enough to hold anyone's attention, or at least anyone who thinks a leader said to have been born amid the appearance of double rainbows and able to write up to 1,000 books a day is bizarre. Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.


From Booklist
Even if one discounts North Korea's ongoing program to develop nuclear weapons, the Korean peninsula remains a highly dangerous place. North Korea maintains around a million troops in forward positions close to the demilitarized zone, supported by a vast array of artillery capable of quickly reducing Seoul to rubble. But North Korea probably does have two nuclear weapons, and they are striving to develop more. Can the U.S. tolerate such destructive power in the hands of perhaps the most repressive, isolated, and even paranoid regime on earth? O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and adjunct professor at Columbia University; Mochizuki is director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and teacher at George Washington University. They have provided a vital service in describing in coherent, easily digestible form the nature of the crisis, including analyses of North Korean conventional capabilities and the often inscrutable motivations behind their government's provocative actions. Their proposals for dealing with this threat, which they dub the "grand bargain," include a variety of demands upon North Korea to limit their conventional forces and completely dismantle their nuclear capability. In return, the U.S., our allies, and China would provide economic aid and guarantees of military security. The plan seems rational, but it assumes we are dealing with a rational regime. Still their proposals are worthy of consideration, as the U.S. is soon to be faced with a belligerent, unpredictable adversary armed with nuclear weapons and the delivery systems to threaten our troops and allies throughout East Asia. Jay Freeman
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved


Washington Post
Deeply informed and closely argued . . . . Their book is smart, dispassionate and full of new information


Los Angeles Times
It is a brilliant scheme for negotiations designed to gain the United States its essential security objectives.


Book Description

"In describing their comprehensive proposal for negotiations with North Korea, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki exhibit the strategic creativity and analytical depth badly needed by United States policy makers dealing with this strange, dangerous place."

--Ash Carter, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Ford Foundation Professor of Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

IN EARLY 2002, in his fateful state of the union address, President Bush described North Korea as being a member of the "Axis of Evil." Since then, the U.S. has gone to war with Iraq, and the world now wonders what the future of Bush's preemption policy will bring. Many of the nation's top experts feel that North Korea is a more imminent threat than Saddam's Iraq was. They have a nuclear program, a million-man army, and missiles to deploy and export.

In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Michael O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at Brooking and visiting lecturer at Princeton, and Mike Mochizuki, endowed chair in Japan-US Relations at G.W. University, not only examine this issue in detail but also offer a comprehensive blueprint for diffusing the crisis with North Korea. Their solution comes in the form of a "grand bargain" with North Korea. Accords could be negotiated step-by-step, however they need to be guided by a broad and ambitious vision that addresses not only the nuclear issue but also the conventional forces on the hyper-militarized peninsula and the ongoing decline of the North Korean economy.


Download Description
In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Michael O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at Brooking and visiting lecturer at Princeton, and Mike Mochizuki, endowed chair in Japan-US Relations at G.W. University, offer a comprehensive blueprint for diffusing the crisis with North Korea.


From the Inside Flap
The first comprehensive blueprint to decisively answer the question "What can be done about North Korea?" Before George W. Bush proclaimed it a member of the "axis of evil," North Korea had already spent decades at odds with the rest of the world. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula is the first book to take readers inside this nation's previously impenetrable walls while also confronting the question of how to deal with it. Provocative and insightful, it outlines a comprehensive program for defusing today's most perilous nuclear crisis. Praise for Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: "A comprehensive proposal for addressing one of the most important issues of our day." --George Mitchell, Former Senate Majority Leader "In describing their comprehensive proposal for negotiations with North Korea, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki exhibit the strategic creativity and analytical depth badly needed by United States policymakers dealing with this strange--and dangerous--place." --Ash Carter, Professor, John F. Kennedy School, Harvard University, and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense "By far the best book yet written on the challenge posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula lays out a proposal that Kim Jong Il may not be able to refuse and that George Bush may be willing to embrace." --Stephen J. Solarz, Former Congressman and Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on East Asia North Korea is among today's most troubled and troubling nations. This Socialist holdout has used its million-man army, erratic and volatile leadership, and burgeoning nuclear capabilities to disrupt and destabilize world affairs. Recent political strains between the United States and South Korea over proper North Korea policy have exacerbated the problem. According to U.S. intelligence, North Korea now poses the most serious threat to U.S. regional interests in a generation. In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, foreign policy scholars and opinion leaders Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki introduce a broad and ambitious program designed to answer once and for allthe stubborn North Korean question. Detailing a "grand bargain" by which the United States and its allies could defuse North Korea's military threat and welcome the nation back into the world community without resorting to Iraq-style war, this probing and timely examination outlines a step-by-step process that would: Address the nuclear weapons issue that so clouds North Korea's present and future global status and northeast Asia's security Reduce conventional military forces, begin to rebuild the nation's shattered economy, and solve its ongoing humanitarian crisis Provide face-saving and nerve-calming security assurances to North Korea's embattled leaders, who show signs they might welcome such pledges North Korea has been a smoldering volcano for far too long. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula provides a convincing, authoritative program for extinguishing that volcano, not only by solving the current and acute nuclear crisis but also by helping North Korea to become a peaceful and constructive member of the world community.


From the Back Cover

The first comprehensive blueprint to decisively answer the question "What can be done about North Korea?"

Before George W. Bush proclaimed it a member of the "axis of evil," North Korea had already spent decades at odds with the rest of the world. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula is the first book to take readers inside this nation's previously impenetrable walls while also confronting the question of how to deal with it. Provocative and insightful, it outlines a comprehensive program for defusing today's most perilous nuclear crisis.

Praise for Crisis on the Korean Peninsula:

"This deeply informed and closely argued book could well be part of the solution. . . .Their book is smart, dispassionate and full of new information. . . .The ‘grand diplomatic bargain’ is ambitious and complex, and worth a careful perusal by anyone concerned with the issues. . . . O'Hanlon and Mochizuki provide many reasons to hope that an enlightened American diplomacy might finally resolve this state of perpetual crisis.”
--Washington Post

“Michael O’Hanlon. . . and Mike Mochizuki . . . have put together what they call a ‘grand bargain.’ Proposed in their new book, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, it is a brilliant scheme for negotiations designed to gain the United States its essential security objectives—virtually everything Washington wants, except regime change.”
--Los Angeles Times

"A comprehensive proposal for addressing one of the most important issues of our day."
--George Mitchell, Former Senate Majority Leader

"In describing their comprehensive proposal for negotiations with North Korea, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki exhibit the strategic creativity and analytical depth badly needed by United States policymakers dealing with this strange--and dangerous--place."
--Ash Carter, Professor, John F. Kennedy School, Harvard University, and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense

"By far the best book yet written on the challenge posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula lays out a proposal that Kim Jong Il may not be able to refuse and that George Bush may be willing to embrace."
--Stephen J. Solarz, Former Congressman and Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on East Asia

North Korea is among today's most troubled and troubling nations. This Socialist holdout has used its million-man army, erratic and volatile leadership, and burgeoning nuclear capabilities to disrupt and destabilize world affairs.

Recent political strains between the United States and South Korea over proper North Korea policy have exacerbated the problem. According to U.S. intelligence, North Korea now poses the most serious threat to U.S. regional interests in a generation.

In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, foreign policy scholars and opinion leaders Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki introduce a broad and ambitious program designed to answer once and for allthe stubborn North Korean question. Detailing a "grand bargain" by which the United States and its allies could defuse North Korea's military threat and welcome the nation back into the world community without resorting to Iraq-style war, this probing and timely examination outlines a step-by-step process that would: Address the nuclear weapons issue that so clouds North Korea's present and future global status and northeast Asia's security Reduce conventional military forces, begin to rebuild the nation's shattered economy, and solve its ongoing humanitarian crisis Provide face-saving and nerve-calming security assurances to North Korea's embattled leaders, who show signs they might welcome such pledges

North Korea has been a smoldering volcano for far too long. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula provides a convincing, authoritative program for extinguishing that volcano, not only by solving the current and acute nuclear crisis but also by helping North Korea to become a peaceful and constructive member of the world community.


About the Author

Michael O'Hanlon, Ph.D., is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. and teaches at Princeton and Columbia universities. Dr. O'Hanlon's work has been published in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, and other influential publications, and he has appeared on networks from ABC and NBC to CNN, MSNBC, Fox, A&E, and others.

FROM THE PUBLISHER

In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, foreign policy scholars and opinion leaders Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki introduce a broad and ambitious program designed to answer - once and for all - the stubborn North Korean question. Detailing a "grand bargain" by which the United States and its allies could defuse North Korea's military threat without resorting to Iraq-style war, this examination outlines a step-by-step process that would: address the nuclear weapons issue that so clouds North Korea's present and future global status and northeast Asia's security; reduce conventional military forces, begin to rebuild the nation's shattered economy, and solve its ongoing humanitarian crisis; and provide face-saving and nerve-calming security assurances to North Korea's embattled leaders, who show signs they might welcome such pledges.

SYNOPSIS

North Korea is among today's most troubled and troubling nations. This Socialist holdout has used its million-man army, erratic and volatile leadership, and burgeoning nuclear capabilities to disrupt and destabilize world affairs.

Recent political strains between the United States and South Korea over proper North Korea policy have exacerbated the problem. According to U.S. intelligence, North Korea now poses the most serious threat to U.S. regional interests in a generation.

In Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, foreign policy scholars and opinion leaders Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki introduce a broad and ambitious program designed to answer once and for allthe stubborn North Korean question. Detailing a "grand bargain" by which the United States and its allies could defuse North Korea's military threat and welcome the nation back into the world community without resorting to Iraq-style war, this probing and timely examination outlines a step-by-step process that would: Address the nuclear weapons issue that so clouds North Korea's present and future global status and northeast Asia's security Reduce conventional military forces, begin to rebuild the nation's shattered economy, and solve its ongoing humanitarian crisis Provide face-saving and nerve-calming security assurances to North Korea's embattled leaders, who show signs they might welcome such pledges

North Korea has been a smoldering volcano for far too long. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula provides a convincing, authoritative program for extinguishing that volcano, not only by solving the current and acute nuclear crisis but also by helping North Korea to become a peaceful and constructive member of the world community.  

FROM THE CRITICS

The Washington Post

Michael O'Hanlon holds a chair at the Brookings Institution, as does Mike Mochizuki at George Washington University. O'Hanlon's expertise on arms control and military technology merges nicely with Mochizuki's knowledge of East Asian security affairs, and as a result their book is smart, dispassionate and full of new information. They balance their criticism of Bush with a retrospective critique of Bill Clinton's diplomacy toward Pyongyang, and try to split the difference between "liberals and realists" with a "grand bargain" that rests equally on toughness and inducements. — Bruce Cumings

Publishers Weekly

The authors of this study have a worthy goal: to completely transform the nature of the world's relationship with North Korea. Although appreciative of previous attempts to freeze the North's provocative nuclear program, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki see the faults in past efforts, and make a strong case for a new way to bring a stable peace to the peninsula and to introduce the so-called Hermit Kingdom to the international community. Few are more qualified to address the issue than "[t]he two Mikes," as they are dubbed in the foreword by Brookings Institution president Strobe Talbott. The pair have passed their careers in many of the nation's best think tanks and universities, and have spent much ink on the topic of East Asian security. In this instance, they propose a clear, reasoned and, most important, achievable "grand bargain" with the North that would involve a broad range of demands while offering specific incentives to reform. To readers unfamiliar with the nuclear crisis that has unfolded since October of last year, when North Korea allegedly admitted it possessed a uranium-enrichment program, the book can be unforgiving; O'Hanlon and Mochizuki launch right into their nuanced approach to defuse the crisis. After they outline their proposal, however, the book becomes a comprehensive, must-read introductory text to the conflict, and the subject is bizarre enough to hold anyone's attention, or at least anyone who thinks a leader said to have been born amid the appearance of double rainbows and able to write up to 1,000 books a day is bizarre. (Sept. 5) Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information.

Foreign Affairs

At a time of growing awareness of the threat that North Korea's nuclear capacity represents, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki offer a provocative "Grand Bargain" to solve the problem. They propose that "the five" — Washington, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow — give North Korea $2 billion a year in economic aid in exchange for Pyongyang's abandoning all nuclear activities and allowing full inspections. This deal would be accompanied by reductions in conventional forces in North and South Korea and in U.S. troops stationed in East Asia — all of which would hasten Korean reunification. Theirs is a bold vision, supported by detailed knowledge of North Korea and rigorous analysis of technical challenges. Events, however, may be starting to overtake them. The Bush administration's multilateral approach has attracted Pyongyang's interest, and Beijing has welcomed the possibility of playing a greater role. Still, the book has great value as a model for analyzing problems of nuclear proliferation and for understanding North Korea.

Library Journal

In October 2002, the North Korean government startled the world by announcing that it possessed nuclear weapons and by withdrawing from the 1970 Nonproliferation Treaty. This new work by two scholars associated with the Brookings Institution provides helpful background on the country and the current dilemma it poses for world leaders. The authors propose a "roadmap" approach to resolving the issues: beginning with the 1994 Agreed Framework (which denuclearized North Korea), North Korea would be required to dismantle its nuclear capability immediately, then reduce its conventional forces, and then improve its human rights record. Each step would bring a benefit from the United States, e.g., immediate resumption of fuel oil shipments for the power plants. Though other think tanks have recently issued policy recommendations on this topic, this report is the most detailed and concrete to date. Unfortunately, issues of nuclear weapons and rogue states have always proven to be intractable, and those with short attention spans lose interest quickly. For this reason, this comprehensive report will appeal primarily to policy wonks. For academic libraries.-Marcia L. Sprules, Council on Foreign Relations Lib., New York Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information.

WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING

George Mitchell

A comprehensive proposal for addressing one of the most important issues of our day. — Former Senate Majority Leader

Ash Carter

In describing their comprehensive proposal for negotiations with North Korea, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki exhibit the strategic creativity and analytical depth badly needed by United States policymakers dealing with this strange--and dangerous--place. — Professor, John F. Kennedy School, Harvard University, and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense

Stephen J. Solarz